Chuck Spinney voices his opinion on this subject, and proposes a thought experiment, in Counterpunch.

Here’s the premise:

At the heart of this question is the nature of the conflict in Afghanistan, specifically the question of whether or not it has mutated into something that is more akin to a classical guerrilla war as opposed to being part of a Fourth Generation War against al Quaeda. The two attachments below may help the reader to appreciate the different dimensions of this consideration.

Good luck with the experiment.